Prediction markets are shaping an early forecast for one of the year’s most-watched cultural announcements: TIME’s Person of the Year. On Kalshi and Polymarket, traders continue to price “AI” as a collective entity as the most likely 2025 pick, though Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is closing the gap.
TIME has named a Person of the Year every December since 1927, choosing the individual — or sometimes a group or idea — that had the strongest influence on global events, “for better or worse.” Past selections range from Franklin D. Roosevelt to Barack Obama, Greta Thunberg, Volodymyr Zelensky, and even symbolic choices such as “The Computer” (1982) and “The Guardians” (2018).
Traders often use this contract as a cultural barometer, reading public mood and global influence months before the editors make their final call.
AI Holds the Top Spot — but Traders Are Wary
Across platforms, “AI” remains the predicted favorite:
- Kalshi: 35%
- Polymarket: 31%
The idea that TIME could again honor a technological force instead of a person gained traction after a decade of rapid AI integration into politics, markets, and daily life. The forecast reflects a belief that generative AI — not one CEO, not one nation — may be the defining force of the year.
However, the chart shows slight softening over the past month. Prediction traders appear split on whether TIME’s editors will choose something as abstract as a technology rather than the people steering it.
The Jensen Huang Surge
Huang continues one of the sharpest climbs in the market:
- Kalshi: 28% (+7)
- Polymarket: 29% (+3)
The Nvidia founder has become one of the most visible figures of the AI economy. Under his leadership, Nvidia briefly became the world’s most valuable company, and Huang himself has evolved from a Silicon Valley CEO into a geopolitical figure whose product decisions shape national strategies. That prominence is reflected in the traders’ forecast, pushing him near parity with “AI” itself.
Pope Leo XIV Remains a Steady Contender
Both platforms price Pope Leo XIV at 15%, a stable middle-tier forecast.
TIME has selected three popes in its history, and Leo XIV’s early tenure — marked by public-facing diplomacy and internal reform conversations — keeps him firmly in traders’ second tier.
Trump, Altman, and the Second Line
- Donald Trump: 10% on Kalshi, 7% on Polymarket
- Sam Altman: 8% and 6%
- ChatGPT: 5%
- Benjamin Netanyahu, Xi Jinping, Elon Musk: low single digits
Trump’s decline suggests traders view the 2025 political narrative as more diffuse than his first term. Altman, once a frontrunner in early AI speculation, now competes with the broader market’s shift toward collective or structural forces rather than individual tech leaders.
These longshot contracts behave more like hedges than serious predictions.
Who Prediction Markets See as TIME’s Most Likely 2025 Winner
Based on today’s pricing, AI remains the most probable 2025 Person of the Year, with Jensen Huang positioned as the strongest individual challenger and Pope Leo XIV holding a distant but stable third place.
If the markets are right, the December announcement could spotlight either the technology reshaping global power structures or the executive most responsible for accelerating that shift. In this forecast, the symbolic choice still leads — but the human face behind the AI boom is closing in.
Would you bet?
