Prediction markets across Polymarket and Kalshi now show Democrats holding a modest lead in the early outlook for the 2028 U.S. presidential election, according to agamble.com’s analysis.
While both platforms price the Democrats at 54% and the Republicans at 46%, Polymarket’s order books tell a more complicated story. Republican contracts have attracted more trading volume — about $509,856 versus $314,852 for Democrats. Even as the odds tilt slightly blue, traders are split on the fundamentals.
What the 2028 Election Odds Show Right Now
The 2028 U.S. presidential election will be held on November 7, 2028. The prediction market settles based on which party’s candidate is declared the winner by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If the race remains uncalled until inauguration, the market resolves based on who takes office on January 20, 2029.
Across both major platforms, probabilities have remained stable through the fall of 2025:
- Democrats: 54%
- Republicans: 46%
Despite the near-even spread, liquidity patterns diverge. On Polymarket, Republican traders are driving significantly larger flows, suggesting either higher conviction or more aggressive speculation on a comeback scenario.
How the 2028 Race Reached Today’s Forecast
Charts from Kalshi show the race was precisely 50/50 in March 2025, before the current Democratic edge emerged. That timing aligns with a sharp shift in the political environment.
In early March 2025, President Donald Trump delivered a high-profile joint session address to Congress outlining the administration’s new governing priorities. The following weeks brought major policy turbulence — from immigration enforcement changes to increasing uncertainty around foreign commitments. Public polling from that period also showed elevated political volatility. Together, these shifts likely contributed to the markets treating both parties as evenly positioned heading into the long 2028 runway.
Since then, Democratic activity has intensified. ABC News tracking shows more than 40 visits by potential Democratic presidential candidates to early and battleground states across 2025 and 2026—New Hampshire, South Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The outreach, while unofficial, has signaled organizational intent and contributed to the perception that Democrats currently hold structural momentum.
How the 2028 Election Forecast Is Shaping Up
Democrats — 54%
Democratic traders hold a narrow but durable advantage. The party’s deep bench—spanning governors, senators, and national policy figures—has maintained a steady presence across competitive states. Increased attention on midterm battlegrounds and early-state infrastructure is driving expectations that Democrats may enter the 2028 cycle more organized than during the 2024 campaign.
Republicans — 46%
The GOP remains strongly priced despite the modest deficit. The list of potential Republican contenders includes high-profile personalities such as Steve Bannon, Tucker Carlson, and Donald Trump Jr., though none have declared. The Republican volume surge on Polymarket suggests that traders see value — or at least volatility — in the party’s long-term prospects. The market’s deeper liquidity on the GOP side indicates positioning for a potential tightening as the field becomes clearer.
Where Bookmakers See Hidden 2028 Risks
Even with Democrats favored today, traders consistently assign Republicans meaningful odds, supported by heavier capital inflows. Some market participants argue that long-run dynamics—economic conditions, candidate quality, and late-cycle polling—could swing the race sharply.
There is also a view that the 2028 contest may ultimately hinge on turnout rather than ideology, with both parties capable of gaining ground as the field clarifies. Despite Democrats’ polling and organizational advantages, GOP traders continue to position aggressively for an eventual reversal.
Who Wins the 2028 Race From Here?
Prediction markets for the 2028 U.S. presidential election currently lean Democratic, but only by a few points. Liquidity favors Republicans, sentiment favors Democrats, and the fundamentals remain unsettled nearly three years before ballots are cast.
As the pre-campaign phase accelerates and potential candidates escalate travel, fundraising, and early-state organization, traders are watching for structural signals that could break today’s near-deadlock.
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