Prediction markets have turned a one-off exhibition into one of the most talked-about tennis events of the winter. On Polymarket, the Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgios contract has already cleared more than $68,000 in volume, and the Battle of the Sexes odds have shifted dramatically in just a few weeks.
In early November, Polymarket priced Sabalenka at 46% to win. Today, the same market shows her at only 17%, a steep re-rating of her chances against the Australian showman.
What the Polymarket Chart Says
The early-November chart shows Sabalenka trading in the mid-40s, briefly touching 46% as traders bought into the narrative of the reigning women’s world No. 1 taking on an injury-ravaged Kyrgios. That optimism didn’t last.
As the month went on, Sabalenka’s line drifted lower. The graph flattens out in the high teens / low 20s through late November and early December, with a couple of short-lived spikes before sellers stepped in again. On the latest snapshot, Sabalenka sits at 17%, with the interface flagging a –22% move from recent levels.
In other words, Polymarket now sees roughly a 1-in-6 shot that Sabalenka wins this exhibition match in Dubai. Most of the money has shifted toward the implied favourite, Kyrgios, even though the contract itself is written on Sabalenka (a “Yes” share pays if she wins, “No” if Kyrgios wins or the match is cancelled/refunded under market rules).
What Polymarket Traders Are Saying
The comments tab under the market helps explain the shift in sentiment:
- One user sums up the skeptical camp:
“Sabalenka is an absolute beast, but the men’s pro serve speed and power are just on a different level. He wouldn’t even have to try that hard.” - Another goes for a deadpan joke:
“Man vs Man.”
Together, these comments capture the split psyche of the market:
- Respect for Sabalenka’s dominance on the WTA Tour and her reputation as one of the most powerful ball-strikers in women’s tennis.
- Skepticism about how that translates against a healthy ATP pro, even a rusty one, over a short best-of-three exhibition with modified rules.
Why You Won’t Find These Battle of the Sexes Odds at Regular Sportsbooks
One reason this Polymarket contract is so closely watched: traditional sportsbooks barely touch this kind of market.
Exhibition, mixed-gender, non-tour matches are a headache for bookmakers:
- They’re hard to model — no historical head-to-head, unknown effort levels, and format tweaks designed for TV rather than sporting fairness.
- The event is wrapped in controversy, from the gender-politics framing to the players’ own remarks on transgender participation. That’s reputational risk on top of pricing risk.
- Limits would need to be tiny to protect against sharp action, which makes the market barely worth running.
Most major books are likely to skip pre-match lines altogether. If the match goes ahead and TV audiences are large, some operators might spin up very cautious in-play odds once they’ve seen a few games and have a feel for the level on both sides. By then, of course, the Polymarket crowd will have been trading this narrative for weeks.
Prediction markets are effectively filling a vacuum: if you want Battle of the Sexes odds before first ball, Polymarket is one of the only places to get a live, crowdsourced price.
The Match: Date, Rules and Why They Matter for Odds
The exhibition is set for December 28, 2025, at the Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai. It’s being marketed as the fourth “Battle of the Sexes” in tennis history, following:
- Billie Jean King vs Bobby Riggs (1973) – the iconic match that helped cement the women’s tour and the fight for equal prize money.
- Margaret Court vs Bobby Riggs (earlier in 1973).
- Jimmy Connors vs Martina Navratilova (1992).
To keep Kyrgios from simply blasting Sabalenka off the court with first serves, the organisers have built in a few balancing rules:
- One serve only for both players, reducing the raw advantage of the men’s game on serve.
- The court on Sabalenka’s side is 9% smaller in both length and width, tightening her targets and giving her a little extra help on defense.
- The match will be best of three sets, with a 10-point match tiebreak at 1–1, which increases variance and slightly helps the underdog.
Those are meaningful tweaks — but Polymarket’s repricing from 46% down to 17% suggests that traders still believe the physical and tactical gap between top-tier ATP and WTA tennis outweighs the rule adjustments.
The Politics Around the Match: Transgender Athletes and Public Perception
In the buildup to Dubai, Sabalenka and Kyrgios have done a joint media tour that has generated almost as many headlines as the match itself.
On Piers Morgan Uncensored, both were asked about transgender women competing in women’s tennis. Sabalenka replied that she personally has “nothing against them,” but believes trans women retain a physical advantage and that it is “not fair” for women who have spent their lives competing in female categories.
Kyrgios said he felt “exactly the same way.”
Those comments echo arguments made by some athletes and officials in favour of stricter eligibility rules, but they’re also sharply criticised by others who see them as exclusionary and harmful to trans women.
Who Wins in the Battle of the Sexes?
With mainstream sportsbooks mostly staying on the sidelines, prediction markets are where the Battle of the Sexes odds are being set in real time. The story they’re telling right now is simple:
- Sabalenka started as a live, almost coin-flip underdog.
- The market has steadily downgraded her chances as traders re-rated the physical gap and factored in Kyrgios’ serve.
- At 17%, she’s now firmly in “puncher’s chance” territory — but the punch is very real.
Whether you buy into the upset narrative or think the early November price was a sentimental overreaction, the Polymarket chart is the clearest x-ray we have of how bettors think this Dubai exhibition will really play out.
Would you take the 17%?
You can follow the event here: https://polymarket.com/event/Battle-of-the-Sexes-Aryna-Sabalenka-vs-Nick-Kyrgios.
