Prediction markets on the Polymarket platform currently make Magnus Carlsen the clear favourite to win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Championship, with Fabiano Caruana, Vincent Keymer, and Nodirbek Abdusattorov leading the chasing pack. On agamble.com’s reading of the market, traders are pricing Carlsen near even money to reclaim the rapid crown, while most rivals sit in the single digits.
What the FIDE World Rapid Championship Is
The FIDE World Rapid Championship is the annual world title in rapid chess, played at 15 minutes per player plus a 10-second increment per move. Since 2012 it has been paired with the World Blitz Championship as a year-end festival, drawing most of the global elite.
The 2025 edition is scheduled for 26–28 December in Doha, Qatar, as part of the World Rapid & Blitz Championships hosted at the Qatar National Convention Centre.
Rapid events have grown in prestige as top players and organisers embrace faster formats, and prediction markets now treat the title as one of the key year-end chess contracts to trade.
What Prediction Markets Say Right Now
On Polymarket’s “2025 FIDE World Rapid Championship Winner” contract, the top of the board currently looks like this:
- Magnus Carlsen – 44%
- Fabiano Caruana – 13%
- Vincent Keymer – 9%
- Nodirbek Abdusattorov – 9%
- Ian Nepomniachtchi – 8%
Carlsen has traded as high as the high-40s in recent sessions, while Abdusattorov’s price has cooled after an earlier spike close to 40%. The shape of the prediction curve suggests traders see Carlsen as the baseline favourite but are keeping meaningful probability on a youth-driven upset.
Magnus Carlsen
For most traders, Magnus Carlsen is still the reference point in any fast-time-control event. The former classical world champion has won multiple World Rapid and Blitz titles and remains the world’s top-rated player in faster formats.
His 44% market share reflects both his historic dominance and the sense that, in a three-day, 13-round Swiss, variance is still high. The price has ticked up a few points in recent days, likely reacting to his steady results on the 2025 circuit and the confirmation that he plans to play the full Doha programme.
Fabiano Caruana
At 13%, Fabiano Caruana is being treated as the most credible “anti-Carlsen” among the established elite. The American grandmaster, a former world championship challenger, has long been known more for deep preparation in classical chess than for blitz or rapid, but his results in mixed-time-control events have improved over the last two seasons.
Traders appear to be pricing in his ultra-consistent form and the possibility that a solid start in Doha’s early rounds could allow him to steer the field into the kind of technical positions where he excels.
Vincent Keymer
The biggest gainer on the board recently is Vincent Keymer, whose price has climbed to 9%, up several points in a short window. The 20-year-old German grandmaster has become a fixture in elite events and is particularly dangerous in rapid and hybrid formats, where his opening preparation and tactical alertness shine.
Keymer’s rise in the prediction market looks like a classic “momentum trade”: modest historical results at this exact event, but strong current form and a belief that he is due for a breakout world-title run.
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
Also sitting at 9% is Nodirbek Abdusattorov, the Uzbek prodigy who won the 2021 World Rapid Championship at age 17, becoming the youngest rapid world champion in history and dethroning Carlsen in the process.
His price has come down from earlier highs near 40%, suggesting some traders have locked in profits or rotated into Carlsen. But Abdusattorov’s record in rapid play – including leading Uzbekistan to Olympiad gold and reaching the top tier of the live rating list – means he remains a high-volatility contender who can win the entire event if he catches form in Doha.
Other Names on the Board
Behind the top four, Ian Nepomniachtchi trades in the high single digits, reflecting his status as a perennial contender in fast events and a former challenger for the classical crown. New world champion Gukesh Dommaraju is farther down the board, as markets seem to view his classical breakthrough as impressive but not yet backed by a dominant rapid résumé.
These lower-priced contracts function more as hedges than central forecasts: traders acknowledge that a rapid Swiss can produce surprises, but the bulk of the probability remains concentrated on Carlsen and the three main challengers.
Who Will Win the FIDE World Rapid Championship?
Taken together, зrediction markets currently see Magnus Carlsen as the most likely 2025 FIDE World Rapid Champion. Fabiano Caruana is viewed as his main classical-style challenger, with Keymer and Abdusattorov leading the younger threats.
The market suggests Carlsen is more likely than not to add yet another rapid title in Doha – but not by a wide margin, and a single bad day could swing the trophy to any of the other front-runners.
Would you bet?
- You can follow and trade the live market on Polymarket here: https://polymarket.com/event/2025-fide-world-rapid-championship-winner
