Prediction markets and sportsbooks now agree that Ohio State sit at the top of the college football championship odds, but they are far from alone in the race.
In analysis compiled by agamble.com, Kalshi prices the Buckeyes at 30%, with Indiana at 22%, Georgia at 15%, and Oregon and Texas Tech each at 11%, while Polymarket is even slightly more bullish on Ohio State at 31% and lines them up ahead of Indiana (20%) and Georgia (17%) in its College Football Champion 2026 prediction market.
Traditional books track that view: Bet365’s college football national championship odds list Ohio State as clear favorite at about +225, followed by Indiana (+250), Georgia (+550), Oregon (+800) and Texas Tech (+900).
Background: A 12-Team College Football Playoff with Real Parity
This year’s College Football Playoff is the latest edition of the new 12-team format, with five highest-ranked conference champions guaranteed spots and seven at-large bids filling out the field. Indiana’s upset of Ohio State in the Big Ten title game gives the Hoosiers a strong claim to the No. 1 seed, while Georgia and Texas Tech arrive as SEC and Big 12 champions and Tulane and James Madison represent the Group of Five.
The biggest selection-committee argument centers on the bubble: Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami. Alabama were blown out in the SEC Championship, but some committee watchers argue their résumé and brand power still make them hard to leave out. As one national writer put it, “If there’s a coin-flip between an SEC heavyweight and anyone else, history says the heavyweight usually lands in the field.”
Whatever the final bracket, the prediction markets already bake in those probabilities, effectively combining “make the CFP” odds with “win it all” odds into a single price.
Market Breakdown: Ohio State Still the Team to Beat
Ohio State
- Kalshi: 30%
- Polymarket: 31%
- Bet365: +225
Even after losing the Big Ten Championship, traders still treat Ohio State as the most complete team in the country. Their price has drifted down a few points in recent days, but both prediction markets keep the Buckeyes several steps clear of the field. One analytics-focused bettor told agamble.com, “Indiana beat them once, but on a neutral field my model still makes Ohio State favorite over anyone.”
Indiana
- Kalshi: 22%
- Polymarket: 20%
- Bet365: +250
Indiana’s stunning rise from outsider to Big Ten champion has been one of the stories of the season. Kalshi traders have reacted aggressively, pushing the Hoosiers up seven percentage points on the latest move, while Polymarket sits slightly lower but still makes them the clear No. 2 in its college football championship prediction. The markets are essentially asking whether an elite defense and a hot quarterback are enough to overcome Ohio State’s longer track record of dominance.
Georgia
- Kalshi: 15%
- Polymarket: 17%
- Bet365: +550
Fresh off another emphatic SEC title game, Georgia profile as the side nobody wants to see in their half of the bracket. Their College Football Playoff winner odds are shorter at sportsbooks than at prediction markets, suggesting traditional bettors remain slightly more confident in the Bulldogs than traders do. One SEC analyst summed up the mood: “Georgia might not have the top seed, but they still have a championship-level roster and one of the few coaches who’s been here and finished the job.”
Oregon and Texas Tech
- Oregon: Kalshi 11%, Polymarket 11%, Bet365 +800
- Texas Tech: Kalshi 11%, Polymarket 8%, Bet365 +900
Oregon’s high-tempo offense and balance on both sides of the ball keep them firmly in the second tier. Texas Tech, newly crowned Big 12 champions, have seen their prediction-market prices grind higher throughout the autumn as they’ve cleared every test. For both, the path likely requires avoiding Ohio State or Georgia until late and winning at least one high-variance shootout along the way.
Longshots and Committee Wildcards
Behind the main pack sit Texas A&M (+1400), Alabama (+2200), Miami (+2500) and Ole Miss (+2000), teams whose odds reflect as much uncertainty about their inclusion in the CFP as their true title strength. Oklahoma lurks at +5000, a classic boom-or-bust flyer for punters who believe their late-season form matters more than early missteps.
At the very bottom of the board, Tulane (+50000) and James Madison (+40000) carry microscopic prices but very real storylines. If either one were to shock the field, it would instantly become the defining underdog run of the first 12-team CFP era.
Who Will Win the College Football Championship?
Across both Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as major books like Bet365, the forecast is clear: Ohio State remain the consensus favorite in the college football championship odds, but Indiana’s surge and Georgia’s playoff muscle keep this from being a one-team market.
Oregon and Texas Tech round out a competitive top five, while traditional powers like Alabama and Miami sit on the fringes, waiting for the committee — and maybe chaos — to give them a path. In a season with more contenders and more playoff spots than ever, the prediction markets see Ohio State as the likeliest champion, but far from a lock.
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