Prediction markets across Polymarket and Kalshi now show a widening but still competitive field for the 2026 Academy Award for Best Picture, according to agamble.com’s analysis. One Battle After Another leads the Polymarket board at 58%, followed by Hamnet at 23% and Marty Supreme at 6%, while Sinners and Bugonia remain in lower single digits.
As the awards calendar accelerates and festival chatter intensifies, traders are positioning around emerging favorites and shifting season narratives.
What the Oscar Best Picture Odds Show Right Now
The Academy Awards, presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), honor excellence in filmmaking across artistic and technical categories. The 98th Oscars ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026, with nominations set to be announced on January 22.
The Best Picture market resolves “Yes” only if a film wins the Oscar. If a title fails to secure the top prize, its contract settles at “No.” Prediction markets integrate film reviews, festival momentum, precursor award trajectories, studio campaign strength, and critical sentiment into real-time probability estimates.
On Polymarket alone, the Best Picture market has already processed more than $700,000 in trading volume, while related markets on Kalshi push the combined total above $3.1 million. Traders expect that number to double by February, when the major guilds—PGA, DGA, and SAG—begin issuing nominations.
Where the Best Picture Race Stands Today
One Battle After Another — 58% (Polymarket)
Paul Thomas Anderson’s political drama maintains a strong lead, reflecting sustained awards momentum and consistently favorable industry chatter. Traders have kept it above 50% for weeks, with intermittent spikes as early critic lists surface and projected nomination counts remain high.
The film follows a political strategist unraveling under the weight of moral compromise, and current forecasts estimate 14 Oscar nominations, the highest among contenders. Its combination of prestige direction, strong ensemble work, and thematic weight makes it the season’s central awards narrative.
Hamnet — 23% (Polymarket)
Chloé Zhao’s Shakespeare-inspired adaptation holds a stable second place. While its market odds remain well below the frontrunner, traders view Hamnet as the most credible challenger due to steady festival buzz and strong critical response.
Projected to earn 11 nominations, the film blends historical drama with Zhao’s signature intimate character focus, giving it a foothold in both artistic and technical categories.
Marty Supreme — 6% (Polymarket)
A24’s character-driven drama continues to float in the mid-single digits. Its modest but resilient odds come from positive festival screenings and rising media attention on Timothée Chalamet’s performance, which is driving parallel Best Actor optimism.
Marty Supreme is expected to land in several below-the-line categories but faces an uphill path to surpass dominant studio-backed entries.
Sinners — 4% (Polymarket)
Ryan Coogler’s crime drama has seen mild upward movement thanks to strong ensemble reviews and early acting buzz—most notably for Hailee Steinfeld in a supporting role. With an estimated 13 projected nominations, the film’s broad craft support keeps it relevant, but traders remain cautious on its Best Picture chances.
The film’s grounded emotional arc and sharp social themes have earned praise, yet it competes in a crowded slate of prestige dramas.
Bugonia — 3% (Polymarket)
Neon’s political thriller continues to behave like a classic passion-pick: volatile, unpredictable, and capable of attracting bursts of bullish interest from niche traders. But at 3%, the broader market remains skeptical of its path to a Best Picture win.
Some users on Polymarket note the irregular buying patterns:
“Can the person buying thousands of dollars of Bugonia ‘Yes’ keep going? Some of us need more fill orders on ‘No,’” one trader joked.
Another trader framed it more positively:
“It feels like audiences are leaning toward something bold rather than the usual awards season favorites.”
There is also a view among traders that the 2026 Best Picture Oscar is likely to go to a film with strong storytelling and cultural relevance. Despite this sentiment, overall market probabilities remain modest.
Why the Bookmakers Still See a Path for the Underdogs
Beyond the Polymarket top five, several films remain mathematically alive but far from frontrunner territory.
On Kalshi, Avatar: Fire and Ash trades in nomination markets at 66%, but on Polymarket it closes out the Best Picture top ten at just 1%, reflecting limited confidence in its awards-season trajectory outside the technical categories.
Musical heavyweight Wicked: For Good shows more promise on Kalshi (46%) but has yet to break through on Polymarket’s winner markets.
Who Takes the Next Best Picture Oscar 2026?
Prediction markets currently point to One Battle After Another as the strongest contender, holding a clear lead at 58%, with Hamnet the only film maintaining meaningful competitive distance.
Marty Supreme, Sinners, and Bugonia remain in the mix but have yet to mount a challenge capable of shifting the broader forecast. As critic lists, guild nominations, and year-end screenings roll in, traders expect sharper market moves — but for now, the Best Picture landscape remains relatively stable.
Would you bet?
Click here to follow the “Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner” prediction market: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picture-winner
