As Agamble.com’s analysis of Kalshi, Polymarket, and sportsbook odds, Arsenal has become the clear favorite to win the English Premier League, well ahead of Manchester City and the rest of the field.
As the 2026 World Cup in North America draws more casual fans to soccer, prediction markets and bookmakers effectively say that anyone tuning into the Premier League to scout future champions should start with Arsenal.
World Cup Buzz and an Arsenal Surge
The buildup to the 2026 World Cup has nudged many US sports fans to follow elite club soccer more closely, trying to figure out which stars and systems will arrive at the tournament in peak form. For that audience, the Premier League is the main stage — and this season, Arsenal have been the headline act.
Mikel Arteta’s team has gone through the fall league schedule without a defeat, putting together a long unbeaten run and allowing very few goals. If they get through the congested Boxing Day period — the traditional 26 December round of matches in England followed by a rapid run of league games — without dropping many points, traders expect their title chances to firm up even more.
The calendar makes that stretch crucial: Arsenal face Brighton, Aston Villa and Bournemouth before a January home match against Liverpool. That Liverpool game looms large, not least because the only league loss on Arsenal’s record this season came against Arne Slot’s side.
What the Prediction Markets Are Saying
On Kalshi, the “English Premier League Winner?” contract prices Arsenal at 68%, with Manchester City at 25% and Liverpool back at 4%. Polymarket’s futures board tells almost the same story: Arsenal 66%, Man City 25%, Liverpool 3%, Chelsea 3%, Aston Villa 2% and Manchester United 1%, with Newcastle and Brentford below 1%.
In both prediction markets, traders are saying that this is now a two-team race, with Arsenal carrying roughly two-thirds of the probability and City holding most of the rest. Everyone else, from resurgent Chelsea to high-flying Aston Villa, is priced as a long shot.
How Sportsbooks’ Odds Line Up
Traditional sportsbooks are close to that view. In major Premier League winner markets, Arsenal sit around -238, which implies roughly a 70% chance of winning the title. Manchester City at +260 translates to about 28%, while Liverpool and Chelsea at +1800 are priced in clear long-shot territory. Aston Villa at +5000 and Manchester United at +6600 are treated as fringe contenders at best.
That means prediction markets and bookies are unusually aligned: Arsenal are more likely to win the league than all other clubs combined, but City are still close enough that one bad month from Arteta’s side could flip the forecast.
For bettors and prediction-market traders alike, the big question is whether Arsenal’s defensive strength and fall form can hold up under winter pressure.
Boxing Day and the Key January Test
From a trading standpoint, the Boxing Day window works almost like an earnings report for title hopefuls. Rosters are tested by match congestion, travel and rotation; a couple of poor results can compress the table and swing both odds and market prices in a matter of days.
If Arsenal come through Brighton, Villa and Bournemouth with at least seven points, many traders expect their prices on Kalshi and Polymarket to drift into the mid-70s in percentage terms. Drop points in two or three of those games, and the January clash with Liverpool becomes a genuine pivot — especially given the psychological edge Liverpool gained as the only team to beat Arsenal so far.
How Premier League Players See the Table
It isn’t just traders and sportsbooks reacting to Arsenal’s surge. Players around the league are being asked who they see as genuine contenders, and their answers are a useful contrast to what the prediction markets are pricing in.
For example, Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernández describes the league as “full of contenders” and says the title race still includes Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea. In his view, Arsenal “have been doing really well for many years,” while Liverpool and City remain strong enough to launch a serious challenge.
Prediction markets only partly agree. The clubs Fernández lists are exactly the ones still priced with any meaningful chance, but traders and major sportsbooks are much tougher in how they size those chances.
Arsenal and City together account for well over 90% of the implied probability on Kalshi, Polymarket and 10bet, while Liverpool, Chelsea and United are effectively being treated as outsiders who would need several things to break their way: an Arsenal dip, a City stumble and a near-perfect run of their own.
Who Wins the English Premier League?
For the moment, the combined forecast from prediction markets and bookmakers is straightforward: Arsenal are firmly in control of the title race, Manchester City are the only serious challenger, and everyone else is chasing shadows.
But the season is long, Arsenal’s lead is not yet huge, and any winter slump could quickly shrink the gap to the pack behind them.
Would you bet?
