Kalshi traders have turned bearish on the idea that MrBeast will end the year with 500 million YouTube subscribers. The market “How many subscribers will Mr Beast get this year?” now gives just about 4% odds that he reaches at least 500 million before 1 January, with Yes shares trading around 4¢ and No near 99¢.
That scepticism comes even as MrBeast sits on roughly 453 million subscribers, meaning he would need to add around 47 million subscribers in less than a month to cash “Yes.” For a creator already at the very top of YouTube, prediction markets are effectively saying that a truly historic subscriber surge is unlikely on this timescale.
Kalshi’s 500 Million Subscriber Market
Kalshi’s contract is simple: if MrBeast’s main channel shows at least 500 million subscribers before the New Year, Yes wins; otherwise No does. Given the current base of 453 million, the implied forecast says markets expect a strong finish, but not a once-in-a-career explosion.
In practice, traders are weighing two forces in opposite directions. On one side is the sheer size of the gap left: tens of millions of people who have to click “Subscribe” in a matter of weeks. On the other is MrBeast’s proven ability to manufacture viral events, often on a global scale, and pull in new audiences with each new format or stunt.
Views Are a Different Story on Polymarket
If the subscriber market looks pessimistic, the views market on Polymarket is almost the opposite.
In the “Will MrBeast hit ___ billion views by December 31?” contracts, outcomes above 102.5 billion views trade near certainty, and traders are now effectively debating where he finishes in a narrow band higher up. Markets around 104–105 billion views are priced as highly likely, with only the very top-end outcomes drawing serious disagreement.
In other words, prediction markets are telling a nuanced story. They think MrBeast will continue to rack up astonishing viewing figures, but they are far less convinced that he can convert those into an unprecedented last-minute wave of subscribers big enough to reach 500 million.
Who Is MrBeast?
MrBeast, whose real name is Jimmy Donaldson, is a North Carolina–raised creator who began posting videos as a teenager. He first broke out with endurance-style uploads like counting to 100,000 on camera, then rapidly scaled into ever larger challenges, stunts and giveaways.
Since then he has built a full-blown business empire around his channel: multiple language and spin-off channels, the Feastables snack brand, tech and analytics ventures like Viewstats, and food projects such as Lunchly. A recent business profile described an operation employing hundreds of people and generating hundreds of millions in annual revenue.
Crucially, his appeal is not just about spectacle but also about large-scale giving. His videos have:
- Raised tens of millions of dollars to plant trees and clean up the oceans
- Funded surgeries that helped thousands of people walk, see or hear again
- Built wells and houses in poorer regions
- Emptied dog shelters, given away islands, houses and even a chocolate factory
- Staged enormous game-show-style competitions like Beast Games with thousands of contestants
That mix of high-budget entertainment and philanthropic framing has made him one of the most recognisable internet figures on the planet.
Why the Market Might Still Be Underestimating Him
Kalshi traders may be right that 47 million new subscribers in a few weeks is a long shot. Even for the biggest channel on YouTube, that kind of late-year spike would require a perfectly timed run of uploads and perhaps one or two truly world-shaking videos.
But if anyone has a history of surprising sceptics, it is MrBeast. Almost every new upload comfortably clears 10 million views; many surpass 50 or even 100 million. Time and again, he launches huge, expensive projects just when viewers assume he has finally peaked. A timed, year-end event video built to dominate social feeds and drive millions of new subscribers would suit him.
Prediction markets say that scenario is rare, not impossible. A 4% price is a way of saying: most of the time he falls short, but once in a while he finds yet another way to bend YouTube to his will.
Would you bet?
