Prediction markets across Polymarket and Kalshi now point overwhelmingly to Bad Bunny as the most likely top global artist on Spotify for 2025, according to agamble.com’s research. Prices on both platforms place him around 96–97%, far ahead of the field. Taylor Swift trails at roughly 3–4%, and all other contenders sit below 1%. As 2025 wraps, traders see little ambiguity in the forecast.
What Spotify Prediction Market Measures
Every year, Spotify announces its most-streamed global artist as part of Spotify Wrapped, a year-end report summarizing global listening trends. Wrapped has become a major cultural event, generating news coverage, social buzz, and heavy attention from fans and the music industry.
The market resolves based on Spotify’s official release for the most streamed artist of 2025, typically published in early December. If Spotify does not release the information by January 31, 2026, the market defaults to “No.” Past winners include Taylor Swift (2024), Bad Bunny (2020–2022), and Drake (multiple years earlier). Because Spotify has become a global listening barometer across genres, this annual top-artist announcement reliably moves headlines and fan markets alike.
Spotify’s 2025 Top Artist Breakdown
Bad Bunny — 95–97% (Kalshi & Polymarket)
Bad Bunny has surged throughout 2025 and now commands near-total dominance in both markets. On Kalshi, he trades at 95.9%, while Polymarket prices him at 95.8%–97%. His rise began early in the year and held steady as global streaming data consistently favored him.
Traders likely view Bad Bunny’s position as a continuation of his long-running international streaming strength. Even after Taylor Swift reclaimed the top spot in 2024, market participants expect Bad Bunny’s broad global listener base, high-volume collaborations, and deep catalog to give him the edge for 2025. The charts from both platforms show a months-long upward drift with little recent volatility, a classic behavior for a heavy frontrunner.
Taylor Swift — 3–4%
Taylor Swift’s odds have slid throughout the fall. On Kalshi she trades at 3.8%, while Polymarket shows 4%. One Kalshi panel displays a one-point drop, marking continued downward pressure.
Despite being Spotify’s top global artist of 2024 with 26.6 billion streams, markets are showing fading conviction that she can repeat this success in 2025. Traders may be factoring in a less release-heavy year, the relative plateau of her catalog streams, and the strength of global Latin-music trends. Though Swift remains a consistent top-five streaming artist, the prediction markets price her as an outside contender.
The Weeknd — ~1%
Both platforms show The Weeknd below 1%, with long-term charts reflecting a steady decline from midyear. While he routinely appears near the top of Spotify’s global lists, he lacks the month-to-month momentum that could threaten Bad Bunny or reverse Swift’s trailing position. Traders seem to treat him as a stable but low-probability option—unlikely to deliver the volume needed to finish first.
Secondary Contenders
Names like Kendrick Lamar, Chappell Roan, and Bruno Mars appear at <1% on Polymarket. None show meaningful price movement. Even with notable performances in 2024—Chappell Roan’s rise, Bruno Mars’s chart-topping collaborations—the markets treat them as marginal candidates. On Kalshi, their contract prices sit at 1¢ for “Yes,” reflecting negligible trader belief that any could overcome the two dominant frontrunners.
Differences across platforms are minimal: both Polymarket and Kalshi show the same hierarchy and nearly identical probability spreads, reinforcing the consensus outlook.
Spotify’s 2025 Winner Forecast
Prediction markets have aligned on a clear verdict: Bad Bunny is the overwhelming favorite to become Spotify’s most-streamed global artist of 2025, with odds hovering around 96–97%. Taylor Swift remains the only notable challenger, though far behind, and The Weeknd trails even further.
Unless late-year streaming data shifts dramatically, traders expect Bad Bunny to secure his fourth top-artist title. Would you bet?
Follow Spotify Artist of the Year prediction market developments here:
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtopartist/top-artist-on-spotify/kxtopartist-25
