Prediction markets across Polymarket and Kalshi now signal a tightening race for Super Bowl 2026 Champion, with a small group of teams separating from the pack — and one clear market favorite emerging. Agamble.com analyzed both platforms for you, and here is what we found: the Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, and Kansas City Chiefs form the leading trio — but traders warn that this year’s Super Bowl market is unusually unstable, and late-season volatility may still reshape the board.
Below is the full breakdown of where prediction markets, sportsbooks, and historical trends point today.
Where the Super Bowl 2026 Futures Stand Right Now
Just a reminder: The 2026 Super Bowl (Super Bowl LX) will be held on February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
Polymarket: Rams Lead, but the Gap Is Narrowing
| Team | Chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 17% | $2.15M |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 12% | $1.89M |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10% | $2.66M |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8% | $3.02M |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8% | $1.97M |
| Detroit Lions | 7% | $1.93M |
The Rams surged to 17% after a strong midseason run and one of the league’s most stable defensive stretches. Philadelphia jumped to 12% but remains volatile after inconsistent second halves. Kansas City, typically a perennial favorite, sits at only 10% — its lowest November pricing in years.
Kalshi: Rams at 19%, Eagles at 13%
Kalshi shows a nearly identical hierarchy:
- Los Angeles Rams — 19% (+6)
- Philadelphia — 13% (−3)
- Denver — 8%
- Green Bay — 8%
- New England — 8%
Combined, both platforms agree: the Rams enter December as the strongest candidate, but the race is far from settled.
What the Market Trends Suggest
Los Angeles Rams — The Clear Market Favorite
Both exchanges price the Rams at the top:
- 17% (Polymarket)
- 19% (Kalshi)
- +400 to +450 at major sportsbooks
Momentum plays a central role. By the end of 2025, the Rams will have only two losses this season, six straight wins, and will not have trailed in a game since Week 6. They will also have one of the league’s best defensive efficiencies.
Traders appear convinced that consistency — not explosiveness — is what separates L.A. this season.
Philadelphia and Kansas City: The Second Tier With Upside
Philadelphia — 12% (Polymarket), 13% (Kalshi)
The Eagles remain dangerous, but market confidence slipped after blowing a 21–0 lead to Dallas. That loss caused:
- sportsbook odds to move from +500 → +600,
- prediction-market probability to dip several points.
Still, Philadelphia’s high floor keeps them among the main contenders.
Kansas City — 10% (Polymarket)
The Chiefs rallied with a late comeback vs. Indianapolis, but traders still treat their season as inconsistent. Kansas City’s volume — over $2.6M, the highest on the board — suggests division among bettors about their true potential.
Seattle, Baltimore, and Detroit: Positioned but Unproven
These teams each trade between 7–8% and make up the speculative middle:
- Seattle Seahawks — 8%
- Baltimore Ravens — 8%
- Detroit Lions — 7%
Their probability profiles remain choppy, and they fluctuate heavily after every win or loss.
A comment typical of trader sentiment reads:
“It’s not over yet — Washington, Miami, and Atlanta will all win.”
The underlying message: the market still expects surprises.
Where Bookmakers Stand — Sportsbooks Largely Agree With Market Pricing
DraftKings & U.S. Books Odds
- Rams: +400 / +450
- Eagles: +600 / +700
- Chiefs: +900 / +950
- Seahawks: +1000
- Ravens: +1200
- Bills: +1200
- Lions: +1200
The sportsbook board mirrors Polymarket and Kalshi almost perfectly.
Sports analysts note that while the Rams are deserved favorites, the race beneath them is wide open: Analysts caution that teams like the Bills or Ravens could still push late if their core stars peak at the right time.
The History of Super Bowl Shockers
If you believe in miracles, the NFL is fertile ground. Historically, some of the biggest upsets in sports happened at the Super Bowl:
Major Super Bowl Underdog Wins
- Super Bowl III (1969): Jets beat Colts
Joe Namath guaranteed the win as an 18-point underdog — and delivered. - Super Bowl XXXII (1998): Broncos beat Packers
Green Bay entered as a double-digit favorite; Denver stunned the league. - Super Bowl XLII (2008): Giants beat 18–0 Patriots
One of the greatest upsets in sports history — New York was a 12-point dog. - Super Bowl XXXVI (2002): Patriots beat Rams
New England began its dynasty by upsetting “The Greatest Show on Turf.”
The lesson prediction markets won’t show: massive surprises happen in this league every decade — sometimes every few years.
If you’re betting on longshots like the Lions, Steelers, or Colts, you’re betting on history repeating itself.
Who Wins the Super Bowl 2026?
Prediction markets and sportsbooks align: The Los Angeles Rams are the current favorites to win Super Bowl 2026.
Philadelphia and Kansas City form the next competitive tier, while Seattle, Baltimore, and Detroit remain viable dark horses. But as past Super Bowls have shown, momentum swings quickly — and February often crowns a champion no model fully saw coming.
As volume rises and the playoff picture sharpens over the next eight weeks, expect sharp moves across both Polymarket and Kalshi.
Would you bet?
- Polymarket (Super Bowl Champion 2026): https://polymarket.com/event/super-bowl-champion-2026-731
- Kalshi (Pro Football Champion?):
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsb/super-bowl/kxsb-26
