Prediction markets are rapidly cooling on Netflix’s $72bn bid for Warner Bros, with the Polymarket contract “Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?” now implying only a 20% chance the Netflix Warner Bros deal odds pay out on time, according to an agamble.com review of the market.
A $72bn Test of Streaming Power
The proposed transaction would see Netflix acquire Warner Bros Discovery’s film studio, HBO streaming business and a deep library that includes “Game of Thrones”, “Harry Potter”, DC Comics titles and Looney Tunes — a consolidation that would reshape the Netflix Warner Bros acquisition landscape in Hollywood.
Under the current structure, Warner Bros would separate parts of its business before handing the studio and streaming assets to Netflix in the second half of 2026, with regulators in the US and Europe assessing whether the combined company would hold too much power in subscription video.
Politics Meets the Deal
What makes this potential Netflix Warner Bros merger unusual even by media standards is the level of overt political attention.
President Donald Trump has said he intends to be “personally involved” in the decision, arguing that Netflix already has a “very big market share” that would “go up by a lot” if the deal proceeds, and suggesting that CNN — one of Warner’s most sensitive assets — might need to be sold.
At the same time, Paramount has launched a rival bid backed by billionaire Larry Ellison, a prominent Trump ally, with reports that a fund tied to Jared Kushner is also involved in financing, deepening questions about political influence around the transaction.
“Not So Fast”: Markets Cut Netflix’s Chances of Closing the Warner Bros Deal by 2026
On Polymarket, the “Yes” side of the contract has slid from well above 50% shortly after the announcement to around 20% today, reflecting growing skepticism in the prediction market odds about both regulatory timing and the risk a competing offer succeeds.
Some traders point directly to Trump’s comments. One user wrote that Trump’s demand to include CNN in any approval decision was “the biggest no ever, easy pennies,” while another argued, “That thing would not get approved. Now, there is a bidding war against Paramount.”
Others focus less on presidential rhetoric and more on the calendar, warning that multi-jurisdiction antitrust reviews rarely move quickly when they involve dominant platforms and politically sensitive news assets.
Why This Is Not “Free Money”
Some comments sound confident, but prices show traders still see real uncertainty about a “No” outcome.Regulators could push for structural remedies. They might demand CNN or other assets instead of killing the whole deal.
Talks could drag on yet still finish before the market’s 31 December 2026 deadline. Netflix and Warner Bros might offer early concessions to show that competition and jobs will stay protected.
Trump-aligned investors back a rival Paramount bid, which clearly threatens Netflix’s plan. Yet no one knows whether Warner’s board, shareholders and regulators will actually prefer that structure, with its own risks.
Will the Netflix–Warner Bros Deal Really Close by 2026?
For now, traders collectively estimate an 80% probability that Netflix will fail to complete the Warner Bros. acquisition on schedule. However, they do not consider it impossible, leaving room for regulatory compromises, a cooling of political pressure, or a late-stage restructuring of the transaction that could revive the deal.
The contract has become a live referendum on how much weight to give Trump’s interventions, the strength of antitrust enforcement and the ability of mega-deals to survive a noisy media and political environment.
If the market is right, the most likely outcome is delay or derailment — yet a one-in-five chance of success is still a long way from zero, especially in a sector where deals often look doomed before they suddenly clear.
Would you bet?
