The latest prediction-market data provides the clearest picture yet. Anthropic is now the clear favorite to deliver the best coding AI model and agent by 2026. Starting in mid-November, traders sharply repriced the entire market, breaking months of near parity between OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, after the release of Claude Opus 4.5 and its early performance signals. Insights compiled by Agamble.com demonstrate how swiftly sentiment shifted and why traders now consider Anthropic the clear frontrunner.
Across both Kalshi and Polymarket, the trend is unmistakable: Anthropic now commands a near-monopoly on expectations, while rivals have collapsed to single digits.
On Kalshi, the shift happens in one massive vertical jump — a rare event in prediction-market dynamics — pushing Anthropic from ~30% to above ~80% in less than 24 hours. Polymarket reflects the same momentum, with liquidity surging past $2.4M.
Prediction Markets Favor Anthropic in Coding AI
Kalshi:
- Anthropic — 88%
- OpenAI — 9%
- Google — 4%
The Kalshi chart shows a uniform pattern from June to mid-November: Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google traded within a tight band, oscillating but never breaking away.
Then Claude Opus 4.5 happens — and everything changes.
Anthropic’s probability rockets upward after Opus 4.5 hits the market with early claims of being “the best model in the world for coding, agents, and computer use.” From that moment, traders stopped treating this race as competitive.
Google, meanwhile, never found meaningful support. The company spent most of the year below 20% probability, and by December its chances have collapsed to just 5–6%, reflecting trader skepticism about the Gemini 3 trajectory.
OpenAI, once a co-favorite, slumped to 9%, pressured by perceived slower iteration cycles and weaker early-benchmark chatter compared with Anthropic.
Polymarket (Dec 31 resolution):
- Anthropic — 89%
- Google — 4.7%
- OpenAI — 6.2%
- xAI — <1%
Polymarket’s volume, which is now above $2.4 million, is a crucial signal. It shows that traders aren’t just making small speculative bets; they’re committing real liquidity, which has almost entirely concentrated on “Yes” for Anthropic and “No” for everyone else.
The decisive turning point occurred on November 18 at around 6 p.m., when Anthropic’s line suddenly rose and remained near 90% for the remainder of the month. Google briefly rallied to 37% in the hours before Anthropic’s surge but then collapsed almost immediately after Opus 4.5 went live.
Why Evaluating the Best Coding AI Agent Is Becoming Harder
Even early Opus 4.5 testers admit the improvements, while meaningful, are now incremental rather than transformational.
As model capabilities converge, markets increasingly reward:
- reliability
- consistency across tasks
- agentic performance
- cost efficiency
- ecosystem strength
Anthropic currently leads all five categories. Benchmarks only offer single-digit edges (SWE-bench Verified, GPQA Diamond), but in real-world coding the ability to handle large multi-file changes, stable tool use, and long-context reasoning has become the primary differentiator.
Markets now view Anthropic as the only company that reliably demonstrates this.
Which AI model will be the best for coding?
Right now, prediction markets agree: Anthropic is the overwhelming favorite — nearly 90% across both major platforms.
OpenAI and Google still have the talent, infrastructure, and compute to stage a comeback, but markets see the next breakthrough as an Anthropic-led cycle, fueled by the Claude 4.5 family and its dominance in coding-heavy workflows.
As 2026 approaches, traders will continue to react to model releases, leaks, agent demos, pricing shifts, etc. For now, though, this race is effectively over.
Would you bet?
- Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcodingmodel/best-ai-coding-model/kxcodingmodel-26jan
- Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-will-have-the-best-ai-model-for-coding-at-the-end-of-2025
Originally posted 2025-12-01 11:19:12.
