Prediction markets from Polymarket and Kalshi have flipped decisively in favor of the Colorado Avalanche, marking one of the most dramatic midseason corrections across any major U.S. futures market this year. After keeping pace with the Carolina Hurricanes through the early fall, the Colorado Avalanche have pulled ahead. The timing is no coincidence.
Avalanche have lost only two of their 16 games since the end of October, both in regulation, and markets reacted instantly. Their probability on Polymarket surged from ~10% in late October to 18.5% by the end of 2025, while Kalshi’s runner-up Hurricanes stalled near 11%.
Across all major prediction venues, the story is the same: the Avalanche are now the team to beat for the Stanley Cup 2026.
What the Stanley Cup 2026 Odds Are Telling Us Now
Futures markets typically move gradually in the NHL — but not this year. Kalshi’s chart shows a clean breakpoint on October 30, when both Colorado and Carolina were priced at 11%, before Avalanche began their steep track upward.
Today’s top-line market snapshot:
Kalshi — Stanley Cup 2026
- Colorado Avalanche — 21%
- Carolina Hurricanes — 11%
- Florida Panthers — 9%
Polymarket — Stanley Cup 2026
- Colorado Avalanche — 18.5%
- Edmonton Oilers — 10%
- Tampa Bay Lightning — 8.8%
- Carolina Hurricanes — 9%
Market volume is also elevated, with $2.96 million on Kalshi and $2.36 million on Polymarket. Both are trending upward into December, signaling strong liquidity and increasingly confident pricing.
Why Avalanche Surged: The Most Dominant Run of the 2025–26 Season
The Avalanche leap wasn’t speculative — it was earned.
Since Oct 29, Colorado has played like a postseason-ready roster:
- 14 wins in 16 games
- No overtime losses
- Elite offensive efficiency, strong possession metrics
- Top-five penalty kill during the streak
This performance revived comparisons to Colorado’s Stanley Cup win in 2022, when they swept through the playoffs with one of the highest postseason goal differentials in league history.
The last time Avalanche made the Final was 2022, when they defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 4–2. Since then, analysts argue Colorado has retained more core stability than almost any contender in the league.
Prediction markets agree: since late October, Colorado’s probability has risen more than any team across all NHL markets.
Which Teams Look Like Real 2026 Stanley Cup Futures Contenders
Colorado dominate the charts, but Polymarket and Kalshi identify different challengers:
Polymarket’s Top Challengers
- Edmonton Oilers — 10%
- Tampa Bay Lightning — 8.8%
- Carolina Hurricanes — 9%
Kalshi’s Top Challengers
- Carolina Hurricanes — 11%
- Florida Panthers — 9%
The discrepancy reflects two interpretations:
Polymarket bettors favor high-ceiling teams with elite star power (McDavid’s Oilers, Kucherov’s Lightning).
Kalshi traders appear more conservative, backing structurally consistent teams (Hurricanes, Panthers) over volatile contenders.
That divergence will narrow as the season matures — but for now, it’s the clearest split among all major 2026 futures markets.
What Sportsbooks Say
Oddsmakers at NHL sportsbooks across the U.S. mirror prediction markets almost exactly.
DraftKings 2026 Stanley Cup Odds
- Colorado Avalanche — +400
- Carolina Hurricanes — +800
- Tampa Bay Lightning — +850
- Vegas Golden Knights — +850
- Florida Panthers — +850
- Edmonton Oilers — 10/1
The Hurricanes remain the top Eastern Conference favorite, while Vegas and Tampa keep steady mid-tier positions.
Sports analysts say that Avalanche’s surge is the most fundamentally supported movement this season:
“Colorado’s underlying metrics finally match the eye test — speed, chemistry, and depth are peaking at the right time.”
When the NHL Playoffs Begin — And How That Impacts the Futures
The 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs are expected to begin in mid-April 2026, with the Stanley Cup Final projected for June 2026, concluding on or around June 30 (the same date Polymarket uses for market resolution).
Historically:
- Avalanche won the Cup last in 2022
- They also reached the Western Conference Final in multiple recent cycles
- Carolina last reached the Final in 2006, winning the Cup that same year
The long-term histories also support today’s market pricing: established postseason teams consistently outperform market underdogs.
So, Who Wins the Stanley Cup in 2026?
Prediction markets are no longer divided: Colorado Avalanche hold the clearest path to the Stanley Cup.
Kalshi and Polymarket — usually divergent in their midseason pricing — now converge around a single favorite. Carolina, Edmonton, Tampa Bay, and Florida still represent the strongest alternatives, but none match Colorado’s combination of form, depth, and momentum.
The volume, odds, and win-rate trajectory all point the same direction.
Would you bet?
