Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

How Many Penalties Will Be Missed at the 2026 World Cup?

The Polymarket market tracks a straightforward question: how many penalties will be missed across all matches of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Bettors are pricing outcomes ranging from fewer than 5 missed penalties all the way to 50 or more. The market closes on Jul 20, 2026, giving traders months to adjust positions as the tournament approaches.

What the 2026 World Cup Penalty Miss Odds Currently Reveal

The crowd is pricing 5+ missed penalties at 0% implied probability—the likeliest outcome by far. This reflects confidence that penalty conversions will remain reasonably strong across the tournament. All higher thresholds carry minimal implied probability, with 10+ at single digits and 20+ or above sitting at 0%, suggesting bettors see very low odds of a historically high penalty-miss rate.

What Could Shift the 2026 World Cup Penalty Market

Early tournament upsets, surprise penalty shootouts, and emerging penalty-taking weakness among favorite teams would move this market. A string of high-profile misses in qualifying rounds or warm-up matches could repricearity expectations upward. Rule changes or unusual playing conditions in 2026 might also alter conversion patterns, though such factors remain speculative at this stage.

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