2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis) Predictions

2026 Men's US Open Tennis Odds and Favorites

The Polymarket prediction market on the 2026 Men's US Open winner opened with eight contenders. The question asks a straightforward one: which player will lift the trophy at Flushing Meadows in September 2026? Traders and bettors have priced outcomes across the field, from heavy favorites to longer shots, reflecting expectations about form, fitness, and momentum across the next 18 months of professional tennis.

Why Carlos Alcaraz Leads the 2026 US Open Betting

Market traders have assigned Carlos Alcaraz a 31% implied probability—a clear consensus pick for the championship. The next tier includes Carlos Alcaraz, priced at 14%, and Carlos Alcaraz at 7%. The remaining five entrants—Carlos Alcaraz, Carlos Alcaraz, Carlos Alcaraz, Carlos Alcaraz, and Carlos Alcaraz—share 14% of the total probability, each carrying single-digit odds. This distribution suggests strong confidence in the top seed while acknowledging uncertainty and depth in the men's game.

What Could Shift 2026 US Open Tennis Predictions

Prediction markets on tennis championships move with injury reports, tournament results, and ranking shifts in the years leading to September. A surprise major winner, a stretch of poor form from the favorite, or a breakthrough run by a younger player could reorder these odds significantly. The market closes on Sep 13, 2026, giving traders 18 months to reassess as real tournaments unfold.

More: read our Polymarket review, compare the best prediction market apps, or bet on sports with a US sportsbook.