Early numbers compiled by Agamble.com from prediction markets and sportsbooks show Team USA just ahead of Japan in the odds for the 2026 World Baseball Classic, with Kalshi traders and Bet365 both favouring the United States.
Inside the 2026 World Baseball Classic: Format, Venues and Field
The 2026 World Baseball Classic will run from 5–17 March 2026 with 20 national teams competing in the sixth edition of the tournament. Pool games will be split across Tokyo, San Juan, Houston and Miami, with all semifinals and the championship game staged at loanDepot Park in Miami.
Japan arrives as the defending champion after its 3–2 win over the United States in the 2023 final, a game that capped a 5–2 run for Team USA.
World Baseball Classic 2026 predictions currently centre on a familiar top tier: the United States, Japan and the Dominican Republic, with Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Mexico and South Korea forming the main chasing group.
What Prediction Markets Say About the 2026 WBC
On Kalshi’s “Classic Winner?” market, traders price United States at about 36%, with Japan close behind at 31%. The Dominican Republic sits at 17%, while Mexico and Venezuela trade at 7% and 4% respectively.
Those prices line up with Bet365, where the U.S. is a slight favorite at roughly +155, ahead of Japan at +300 and the Dominican Republic at +425. Puerto Rico follows at +1000, with Venezuela around +1400, Mexico +1800 and South Korea +2400.
The implied probabilities differ slightly from those of Kalshi, but both markets agree that the USA vs. Japan match is the most important in the 2026 WBC.
USA
For now, traders see Team USA as the safest pick. Kalshi’s 36% price is a touch below Bet365’s implied ~39% chance, suggesting the prediction market is a bit more cautious than the book.
Recent roster news helps to explain why the U.S. is in the lead. Manager Mark DeRosa has secured the participation of Dodgers catcher Will Smith, Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber, Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson, and Brewers infielder Brice Turang. They will join young outfielders Corbin Carroll and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Smith is set to share catching duties with Cal Raleigh, providing Team USA with a combination of power, defence, and experience in handling elite pitching.
With FOX set to broadcast the event in the United States and pool play scheduled for Houston, American fans will effectively have home games during the opening round. That home-field feel is another factor that supports current World Baseball Classic 2026 predictions.
Japan
Japan’s roughly 31% price on Kalshi and +300 line at Bet365 reflect its status as reigning champion and perennial WBC powerhouse. Coaches plan to feature Shohei Ohtani as a hitter, even though recent injuries still cloud his ability to pitch.
Japan will host its pool at the Tokyo Dome. Home crowds and familiarity with the park give Samurai Japan a clear edge. Prediction markets frame the U.S.–Japan rivalry as nearly a coin flip in the late knockout rounds.
Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic slots in as the clear third choice at around 17% on Kalshi and +425 at Bet365. The roster is still forming, but early indications point to another power-heavy lineup and a deep bullpen. A two-game exhibition series against the Detroit Tigers in Santo Domingo just before the tournament underlines how serious the federation is about preparation and momentum.
For traders, the key question is whether the Dominicans can match the rotation depth of the U.S. and Japan over a short, high-leverage tournament.
Where the Other WBC 2026 Contenders Stand
Beyond the top three, markets see a tightly bunched second tier. Bet365 lists Puerto Rico at +1000, Venezuela at +1400 and Mexico at +1800, all sitting between roughly 5–9% implied chances.
Prediction markets broadly echo that shape, but with lower absolute probabilities once the U.S., Japan and the Dominican Republic are accounted for. Puerto Rico has already added Tigers star Riley Greene to a lineup that could also feature Francisco Lindor, Javier Báez and Carlos Correa, giving them the kind of everyday talent that can upset a favorite in a single elimination bracket.
Venezuela and Mexico both benefit from strong domestic pitching pipelines and rising MLB talent, which keeps them firmly in the conversation even if they sit outside the top three in most World Baseball Classic 2026 odds screens.
The Longshots in This Year’s WBC
Further down the board, traders see South Korea and several emerging baseball nations as longshots, but not write-offs. South Korea’s +2400 price implies only a small chance, yet recent exhibition wins over Czechia and competitive showings against Japan in friendlies suggest a team that could be dangerous if it gets hot at the right time.
For traders, these long odds can still be useful. They help show how much confidence the market has in the elite tier, and they offer optional hedges for anyone heavily exposed to the favorites.
Who Will Win the World Baseball Classic 2026?
Right now, prediction markets and sportsbooks largely agree: Team USA has a slim edge over Japan, with the Dominican Republic the most credible challenger from outside that top two.
If the American roster continues to fill with All-Star-level names, the gap in World Baseball Classic winner odds could widen. If injuries or late withdrawals hit, or if Japan confirms a fully two-way version of Ohtani, the balance may swing back toward the defending champions.
Either way, the 2026 WBC is shaping up as a rematch of 2023 with an even deeper supporting cast and a thicker layer of data from prediction markets tracking every roster announcement.
Would you bet?
- Follow the market on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbworld/world-baseball-classic
