AI Leads the Forecast for TIME’s Person of the Year

Prediction markets now point to an unusual frontrunner for TIME Magazine’s 2025 Person of the Year: Artificial Intelligence. With odds near 40% across Polymarket and Kalshi, traders tracked by agamble.com are pricing in a historic outcome in which “something” may beat “someone” for the second time in nearly a century.

Alongside AI, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has become the strongest individual pick, while Pope Leo XIV, Donald Trump, and Sam Altman form a distant second tier.

How TIME Chooses Its Person of the Year

TIME’s Person of the Year recognizes the individual — or occasionally a concept or object — that most influenced world events over the past year, for “better or worse.” The designation has existed since 1927 and usually features a person, though rare exceptions exist, including “The Computer” in 1982.

The 2025 race takes place amid a period of rapid AI deployment, regulatory disputes, concerns about automation, and cultural shifts in how people work, create, and disseminate knowledge. As with past selections, the cover of TIME magazine, rather than web posts or co-mentions, determines the market resolution.

Where the Odds Stand for TIME’s Person of the Year at This Moment

For the first half of the year, Donald Trump held a narrow lead in the markets. That changed in mid-June, when traders shifted decisively toward AI as the central force shaping 2025. Then, in late October, a new contender entered the field: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, whose sudden rise now threatens to overturn the expected narrative.

AI leads at 37% on Polymarket, with strong volume ($11.7M in total market trades).
Kalshi places AI at 40%, marking firm cross-platform alignment.
Jensen Huang rises to 25–29%, including a 4% jump on Kalshi.
Pope Leo XIV drops to 10–11%, retreating from earlier highs.
Donald Trump and Sam Altman cluster around 8%, with high liquidity but low probability.

The volume-versus-probability split is notable: Trump’s heavy trading ($1.9M on Polymarket) resembles the dynamic seen in our Google’s Most Searched Person of 2025 forecast, where attention alone failed to translate into strong odds.

The Top Five Contenders

Artificial Intelligence — 37–40%

AI fits TIME’s criteria as a transformative force shaping culture, economics, labor, and geopolitics. Traders also note that TIME and OpenAI entered a multiyear licensing partnership in 2024, though it is unclear whether that relationship influences editorial decision-making. The markets are not treating this as speculation; the pricing shows sustained conviction.

Jensen Huang — 25–29%

Huang represents the infrastructure behind AI’s acceleration, from chip supply dominance to global policy negotiations. As the individual most associated with the AI boom, his rise suggests that traders are hedging for a scenario where TIME opts for the person behind the phenomenon rather than the phenomenon itself.

Pope Leo XIV — 10–11%

The Pope’s diplomatic tours, interfaith messaging, and early-year headline momentum pushed him into top tiers on multiple markets. His retreat reflects a shift toward tech-centric influence rather than a loss of relevance.

Donald Trump — 7–8%

“Low Odds, High Volume: The Trump Trade Returns”

Despite being a past Person of the Year, Trump is priced as familiar rather than transformative. The markets appear to treat 2025 as a year driven by technology, not political personalities — mirroring his weaker search-market odds in the Google forecast.

Sam Altman — 6–8%

Altman benefits from the AI narrative but is priced as too narrow a symbol. His odds rise whenever Huang pauses, suggesting tactical hedging: traders buy him as a levered bet on AI if TIME ultimately favors a human over a concept.

Who Becomes TIME’s Person of the Year?

Prediction markets increasingly frame 2025 as the year AI itself, rather than its architects, becomes the defining global actor. Jensen Huang remains the only viable alternative, but cross-platform prices suggest the race is trending toward a non-human choice.

If TIME follows its own history of recognizing influence above personality, the result may be obvious before the cover drops.

Would you bet?