Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi now show a cautious but divided outlook for Bitcoin’s year-end trajectory, according to agamble.com’s analysis. Traders are pricing slim odds of BTC hitting $150,000 anytime soon, while assigning a much higher probability that Bitcoin will spend December trapped below six figures.
With the world’s largest cryptocurrency hovering near the $92,000–$94,000 range, prediction market sentiment reflects growing concern that momentum may be fading.
What Traders Think Bitcoin Will Do Next
Polymarket markets tied to 2025 price targets point overwhelmingly to a year-end below $100,000. Contracts for Bitcoin reaching $95,000 by December show an 84% probability, while the chance of a move to $100,000 sits at 49%. Higher targets fall sharply: $105,000 (29%) and $110,000 (15%).
Kalshi’s forecast contracts echo the same tone. Its “How high will Bitcoin get this year?” market currently projects a $128,000 peak for 2025 — down from earlier forecasts that broke well above $140,000.
Another Kalshi market tracking Bitcoin at $150,000 or above has the closest near-term windows priced between just 18% and 23% through mid-2026. In other words, traders see movement, but not acceleration.
The mood is shifting from “how high?” to “can Bitcoin avoid slowing down?”
Where the Bitcoin Price Stands Going Into December
Bitcoin is showing signs of hesitation just below $95,000. Analysts cite that level as both a resistance wall and a leveraged liquidity zone — a point at which aggressive futures positions could unwind if price action turns lower. ETF inflows have slowed, and smaller crypto assets are seeing capital rotate out of riskier bets.
Current sentiment revolves around three key realities:
- Bitcoin is up for the year, but barely.
- Its October all-time high near $126,000 stands in contrast to recent weakness.
- Profit-taking pressure and ETF outflows remain potential drag factors.
Prediction markets are reflecting that uncertainty. Near-term targets that once looked trivial now require stronger catalysts — central bank policy, ETF inflow returns, or a breakout past $95K with conviction.
The Big Targets No One Wants to Bet On
Polymarket’s higher-price contracts show a steep decline in expectations:
- $130,000+ — 6%
- $140,000+ — 4%
- $150,000+ — 2%
- $160,000+ — 3%
- $180,000+ — 1%
Even Kalshi’s multi-month horizon suggests that the road to $150K is more of a 2026 topic than a December-2025 outcome. These trades are attracting volume largely from contrarians and long-term speculation, not short-term directional conviction.
To put it simply: markets see upside scenarios, but not urgency.
Will Bitcoin Still Finish the Year Above $100,000?
Prediction markets currently lean toward no. The most probable year-end zone remains between $88,000 and $98,000, with bulls needing a clean breakout above $95,000 to shift expectations. If ETF flows reverse or macro conditions improve, Bitcoin could still challenge six figures. But without that catalyst, stability — not a surge — looks like the default path.
It leaves one question lingering on every trading desk:
Bitcoin could rally, Bitcoin could stall — but which outcome would you bet on?
