Prediction markets across Polymarket and Kalshi are rapidly converging on a surprising new favorite #1 Searched Person on Google this year, according to agamble.com’s latest analysis. With more than $22.6M traded on Polymarket and $8.24M on Kalshi, the market is now dominated by a figure rarely associated with internet virality: Pope Leo XIV.
His odds surged into the mid-40% range across both platforms, while traditional headline-makers — from Donald Trump to entertainment personalities — lag far behind. With Google’s Year in Search list expected in December, traders are aggressively betting on a result that few saw coming even a month ago.
What the #1 Google Search Odds Reveal Right Now
Polymarket shows a decisive lead for Pope Leo XIV at 42%–44%, while Kalshi mirrors the trend at 44%, marking one of the most aligned cross-platform forecasts this season. Bianca Censori and Donald Trump share a tight second tier on Polymarket at 12%, while the Kalshi market pushes Trump slightly higher at 14%.
Most notable is the volume imbalance. While Democrats vs Republicans in election markets often show similar distortions, here the effect is dramatic:
- Donald Trump — $6.5M Vol.
(despite only 9–14% odds — huge liquidity but weak probability) - Pope Leo XIV — $2.48M Vol.
(with 44% odds — fewer trades, but far more conviction)
Overall, both platforms are seeing some of their highest non-political engagement of the year. By the end of Q1 2026, total turnover could double, based on similar Year-in-Search markets in past cycles.
Why Pope Leo XIV Became the Breakout Favorite
The Pope’s unexpected rise in search interest coincides with a globally televised first foreign trip that has dominated international headlines. His comments during historic visits to Turkey and Lebanon, especially warnings that “the future of humanity is at stake” amid escalating global conflicts, sparked massive online attention.
Key storyline drivers include:
- A peace-focused diplomatic tour closely watched by international media
- High-profile appearances at the Blue Mosque and the anniversary gathering in Iznik, referencing the Nicene Creed
- His role as a “unity figure” after the deep internal divisions of the Francis era
Search data sentiment suggests global curiosity: who he is, how his tone differs from Pope Francis, and why his diplomatic messaging has become central to Middle East and European coverage.
On Polymarket, one user summarized the sentiment: “Trump is a free no… the only thing holding this up is someone buying ‘yes’ accidentally.” Another argued that traders using proper keyword tools would “change their minds” after checking real search trends.
The Other Top Google Contenders — And Why They’re Being Searched
Bianca Censori — 12% (Polymarket), 12% (Kalshi)
Her public appearances, the constant tabloid cycle surrounding her marriage to Kanye West, and several viral fashion moments keep global search activity elevated. She consistently stays in the 10–15% range.
Donald Trump — 9% (Polymarket), 14% (Kalshi)
The former president remains a magnet for political news — trials, rallies, media spats — but search fatigue appears real. Markets expect him to fall behind more unexpected, globally resonant events.
Jimmy Kimmel — 7–8%
Spikes are tied to recurring viral monologue clips, award-season hosting speculation, and several high-visibility TV moments.
Luigi Mangione — 6%
A late-season riser tied to online virality and meme-driven content cycles. Traders have not ruled out a last-minute surge.
Zohra Mamdani — 6–7%
Interest tied to activism coverage and international political commentary, especially across TikTok and Twitter/X ecosystems.
What Users Say on Prediction Markets
Across Polymarket comments, the sentiment skews toward the Pope as the clear leader:
- Some traders note that groups “entered hours ago,” interpreting the upward movement as institutional flow rather than retail noise.
- Others warn that many participants are “either early or exit liquidity,” suggesting that liquidity pools — especially on Trump — may be misleading.
While rarely reliable in isolation, user commentary often reflects the emotional temperature of the market. Here, the confidence in Pope Leo XIV is unusually consistent.
The Long-Shot Names Still in the Game
While the top tier is stabilizing, several long-shot candidates remain in play, especially in regions with late-breaking news cycles. Entertainment personalities, international athletes, and political figures involved in emerging crises could still cause volatility.
Keyword data historically shows that December events — scandals, deaths, viral clips, political crises — can swing the global search chart dramatically in the final weeks.
Bookmakers and forecasters note that Year-in-Search markets are “fragile”: one unexpected global story can rewrite the list overnight.
Why Donald Trump Isn’t Leading — A Rare Twist in Google Search Trends
Despite topping Google’s Year in Search in 2024, Donald Trump is steadily losing ground in 2025. On Kalshi, he remains in second place but with softening odds, while Polymarket traders now treat him as a distant third. Both markets tell the same story: the momentum simply isn’t there.
The most likely explanation is what analysts call global search fatigue. After a decade defined by constant media cycles, legal drama, political fights, and daily headline generation, online audiences appear to be tuning him out. Even his courtroom appearances — once guaranteed to dominate Google Trends — now produce smaller and shorter spikes.
In effect, the internet may have reached saturation. And for a figure who once defined the digital news ecosystem, it’s an ironic shift: in the attention economy, he’s no longer the central character.
Who Becomes the Most Searched Person on Google?
Markets currently converge on one answer: Pope Leo XIV.
His global diplomacy tour, historic interfaith appearances, and rising media presence have propelled him past celebrities and political giants. Bianca Censori, Trump, Kimmel, Mangione, and Mamdani remain in play — but none match the consistency of his search momentum.
With Google’s official Year in Search report coming in December, the only real question is: Will late-breaking news reshape the leaderboard — or is the result already locked in?
And one more: Would you bet?
