Prediction markets tracked by agamble.com currently show a striking split in where Donald Trump is expected to travel in 2026 – and which capitals he is likely to skip. Based on Polymarket pricing, China (90%) is the standout favorite for a presidential visit, while Russia (49%) trades more than three times higher than Ukraine (14%).
Canada, Israel, and Japan sit in a crowded middle tier where traders are still debating how much diplomatic energy Trump will spend.
What the Market Is Predicting
The Polymarket contract “Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?” is a set of individual yes/no markets, one for each destination. Prices roughly map to implied probabilities: a contract around 90¢ suggests a 90% chance Trump makes that trip at least once in 2026.
Unlike a traditional election forecast, these outcomes are not mutually exclusive. Traders can price high odds for multiple stops, reflecting the reality that a sitting U.S. president can visit several countries in a single year. Volumes also matter: they show where prediction market participants are putting real money behind their views.
While Western allies such as the United Kingdom, France, and Germany all trade above 60%, the more geopolitically charged story sits around Ukraine, Russia, China, Israel, Canada, and Japan.
Russia vs. Ukraine: A Sharp Asymmetry
The Russia and Ukraine lines in this market look almost like a referendum on Trump’s foreign-policy instincts. Russia is priced at 49% with a recent 8-point bump , signaling that traders now treat a Kremlin visit as close to a coin-flip. Ukraine, by contrast, sits at just 14% with modest volume.
That gap matters in context. In agamble.com’s earlier analysis of the Russia–Ukraine ceasefire markets, prediction markets gave only slim odds to a near-term peace deal while treating 2026 as the first realistic window for a settlement.
Trump has struggled to turn his personal diplomacy into the ceasefire headline he wants, and traders seem skeptical that Kyiv will be high on his 2026 travel list unless negotiations move further than they have so far.
For Russia, traders may be pricing in Trump’s long-standing emphasis on leader-to-leader deals and his interest in personally owning any eventual breakthrough. A Moscow trip would be controversial, but that is precisely why prediction market participants think it is plausible: a single high-drama summit could help Trump claim he is “fixing” a war that previous administrations could not.
China: The Near-Certain Stop
China at 90% with the highest volume on the board ($1,548) looks almost like a consensus trade. After fresh tariffs, disputes over critical minerals, and renewed focus on Indo-Pacific security, markets assume that Trump will prioritize face-to-face talks with Beijing.
Traders may also be reading this as a domestic story. A trip to China gives Trump an opportunity to frame himself as tough on trade while still striking headline-friendly deals on manufacturing, supply chains, or technology. For prediction market participants, the combination of geopolitical stakes and domestic optics makes a 2026 China visit look close to inevitable.
Israel and Canada: Familiar but Not Guaranteed
In the middle of the distribution, Israel (63%) and Canada (43%) sit in a zone where the forecast is bullish but not locked in. Israel’s price has ticked up 3 points, supported by solid volume, reflecting traders’ belief that Trump will continue to use the U.S.–Israel relationship as a showcase for his foreign-policy brand.
Canada trades lower despite its geographic proximity and economic integration with the United States. At 43%, traders appear to think that routine North American diplomacy may not produce the kind of made-for-TV moment Trump prefers. A Canada visit is plausible, but prediction market participants don’t see it as a priority compared with more dramatic stages.
Japan: The Most Interesting Long-Term Bet
Japan stands at 49% on Polymarket with light volume, making it another near coin-flip for 2026 specifically. But if you want to think beyond a single year, Kalshi already lists a broader contract on “What countries will Trump visit before 2027?” — and here Japan is arguably the most interesting choice on the board.
Recent diplomacy helps explain why. Tokyo and Washington have already used Trump’s second term to reaffirm their alliance, expand cooperation on critical minerals and energy infrastructure, and deepen defense coordination in the Indo-Pacific. Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae has tied her domestic agenda to demonstrating competence on the international stage, and hosting Trump was an early test she passed.
Layer on top the symbolic politics. Japan plans to gift Sakura trees to the United States for the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence in 2026, explicitly framing the gesture as a sign of renewal in the relationship. For traders on a longer-term prediction market, that combination of strategic necessity and powerful symbolism makes a repeat Trump visit — and perhaps another walk under the cherry blossoms — a compelling bet.
Which Countries Will Donald Trump Visit in 2026?
Taken together, prediction markets suggest that Trump’s 2026 travel calendar will lean toward great-power stages and high-drama diplomacy rather than solidarity visits to war zones. China and key European allies look close to locks, Russia is priced as more likely than not, Japan is the intriguing medium-term play, and Ukraine remains an outside shot unless the peace process accelerates.
For now, traders think Trump is far more likely to stand alongside Putin or under Beijing’s red carpet than next to Zelensky in Kyiv — but they are still paying attention to every headline that could shift those odds.
Would you bet?
- Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026
- Kalshi (What countries will Trump visit before 2027?): https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpcountries/what-countries-will-trump-visit-before-2027/
