Two major prediction platforms—Polymarket and Kalshi—are pricing the same political question in markedly different ways: Will Donald Trump release any Epstein-related files within the stated time limits?
The contrast between them offers a snapshot of how traders interpret political pressure, legal obligations, and the credibility of Trump’s prior promises.
Polymarket: Scepticism Dominates
On Polymarket, short-term timeframes show almost no confidence.
Contracts tied to specific dates trade between 1% and 6% for a “Yes,” while the year-end deadline jumps to around 79%—but this reflects structural quirks. When traders lose faith in near-term disclosure, they often pile into the far-dated option as the only remaining path to a payout.
The mood here is retail-driven, cautious, and shaped by the pattern of prior delays.
Polymarket traders have repeatedly priced Trump’s promises below face value. The platform historically responds more strongly to institutional pushback—such as agency statements or procedural stalls—than to political speeches or hints.
Kalshi: Traders Expect a Release—Eventually
Kalshi tells almost the opposite story.
Long-dated contracts tied to any release before 2026 trade above 70%, an unmistakable signal that traders believe disclosure remains more likely than not.
Kalshi participants tend to weigh legislative momentum heavily. Recent congressional moves to force greater transparency around Epstein-related materials appear to be influencing expectations. The platform’s pricing also reflects a different trader base: more policy-driven, more institutional, and highly sensitive to government timelines rather than news-cycle chatter.
Why the Gap Exists
Several forces drive the divergence:
1. Different Questions, Different Clocks
Kalshi’s markets focus on broad, multi-year windows.
Polymarket emphasizes near-term deadlines, and these are areas where political noise often outweighs concrete action.
The result: Polymarket looks pessimistic in the short run; Kalshi looks optimistic about the endgame.
2. Regulated vs. Crypto-Native Traders
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated with a stricter contract definition, attracting traders who rely on institutional signals.
Polymarket, operating in a crypto environment, tends to swing with sentiment, online narratives, and rapid information cycles.
3. Interpretation of “Release”
Both markets focus on previously unreleased material.
That threshold matters. A single document qualifies—yet traders differ on whether political actors will choose limited release, broad disclosure, or continued delay.
What This Means Right Now
Kalshi sees a path toward release and prices the odds accordingly.
Polymarket remains doubtful that anything meaningful will surface in the immediate future.
Both markets agree on one thing: if anything comes out, it may be incremental rather than explosive.
- Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-release-epstein-files-by
- Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxepstein/epstein-documents/kxepstein-26
Would you bet?
